MONTREAL— Debates over the economic impacts of Quebec becoming an independent nation have resurfaced in Canada, driven by the Parti Québécois (PQ) leading in recent polls. However, a study on Alberta’s potential separation from Canada serves as a stark warning for Quebec.
PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised that if his party forms government, he will hold an independence referendum after U.S. President Donald Trump’s term ends in January 2029. He argued that the delay is necessary because the unpredictability of the Trump administration could undermine the project. This marks the first time since Jacques Parizeau’s 1994 government that the PQ is poised to take power with a promise to hold a referendum.
The PQ’s 2026 platform outlines a $130-million cost for preparing and holding the referendum. The party’s 500-plus page ‘Livre bleu’ paints a favorable picture, framing separation as a net financial benefit. The party leader contends that ending federal duplication and losses would save billions of dollars, estimating administrative savings between $13 billion and $16 billion by consolidating federal agencies. However, the report does not clearly account for state expenses such as establishing an independent military or border services.
A $170-Billion Warning
Meanwhile, a new study commissioned by the Alberta provincial government presents a dramatically different economic reality. Conducted by experts at the University of Calgary, the report indicates that Alberta separating from Canada could cost between $50 billion and $170 billion over a five-year period.
Tim Sargent, an economist at the University of Calgary, pointed out that Quebec would likely face a similar trajectory. He warned that separation could shrink Quebec’s GDP and drive up interest rates across the economy, including on home mortgages. The report underscores that Quebec could suffer an economic slowdown akin to what the United Kingdom experienced following Brexit.
With Quebecers heading to the polls on October 5, opposition parties including Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and the Quebec Liberal Party have sharply criticized these referendum plans for creating economic turmoil. However, the PQ leader maintains that people should not fear democracy and called it a courageous step toward securing the province’s future.
