OTTAWA- Despite the G7 nations’ decision to release millions of barrels of crude oil and refined fuel products from their emergency reserves, petrol and diesel prices are expected to continue rising in the coming weeks due to a substantial mismatch between global supply and demand.
Dan McTeague, President of Canadians for Affordable Energy, noted that fuel prices typically drop around this time of year compared to the summer months, driven by lower overall demand and the seasonal shift to cheaper winter-blend fuels. However, he emphasized that current market conditions deviate significantly from historical trends.
McTeague predicts that fuel prices could jump by up to 10 cents per litre ahead of Thanksgiving on October 12, with a further increase of 10 to 15 cents per litre expected by the third week of October. The core issue driving this surge is that global refinery output and crude supply are currently failing to keep pace with rising worldwide demand.
The G7 coalition—comprising Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US—announced plans to release 100 million barrels of oil and refined products from emergency stockpiles to counter global price surges stoked by Middle Eastern conflicts and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
However, McTeague cautioned that the G7 intervention will offer only fleeting relief. With G7 nations collectively consuming roughly 32 million barrels of fuel per day, a 100-million-barrel injection represents roughly three days of consumption. Consequently, he stated that the measure will not solve systemic market shortages, and drivers should prepare for further price increases at the pump.
