TORONTO- At the onset of a trade war with the U.S., researchers at the University of Toronto set out to better understand what the impact would be for workers in different cities.
Nearly a year and several rounds of tariffs later, their answer for Toronto is roughly 66,000 workers and 3,000 businesses, and counting.
The project, titled Mapping Tariffs, was first launched after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed an initial round of tariffs in March 2025 targeting sectors like automobile and steel. The goal was simple: map and quantify the direct impact of trade levies across Canadian municipalities and communities.
Key Findings from the Research
- Toronto: The round of tariffs imposed in late August affects roughly 3,027 businesses (3.2%) and approximately 66,000 workers (4%) in Toronto. However, researchers noted that Toronto’s diverse industrial base—spanning finance, technology, and culture—helps buffer the city from immediate, severe shocks compared to more specialized regions.
- Vaughan: In the Vaughan census subdivision, about 1,000 businesses (5.7%) are directly exposed, affecting 32,555 local employees (12%) and nearly 12,000 residents who commute elsewhere (6.7%).
- Windsor: Home to automotive assembly plants for Ford and Stellantis, Windsor sees 4.5% of its businesses and around 12,100 workers (11.6%) directly impacted.
- Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA): Across the wider region (from Ajax to Milton), an estimated 7.3% of businesses and over 200,000 workers (13.5%) are exposed to the tariffs.
Tara Vinodrai, a professor at the University of Toronto’s Institute for Management and Innovation and co-lead on the project, explained that the mapping tool is designed to give policymakers granular insights to build local mitigation strategies. This includes helping local businesses diversify into international markets beyond the U.S.
