Ottawa : With less than a month until Canada’s 45th federal election on April 28, the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, has taken a commanding lead in national polls. Recent surveys indicate the Liberals are polling at around 42-48%, outpacing the Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre, which hovers between 36-39%. This shift marks a dramatic turnaround from earlier this year when the Liberals trailed significantly under former leader Justin Trudeau.
Analysts attribute Carney’s surge to his strategic focus on Canada-U.S. relations, particularly in response to President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs and annexation threats. Since taking office on March 14, Carney has positioned himself as a steady hand to navigate the trade war, a message that appears to resonate with voters. A recent Nanos poll found 40% of Canadians prefer Carney to handle Trump negotiations, compared to 26% for Poilievre.
The Liberals’ momentum is also bolstered by a consolidating centre-left vote, pulling support from the struggling New Democratic Party (NDP), now languishing at 10-12% under Jagmeet Singh. With Trudeau’s resignation in January and Carney’s snap election call on March 23, the party has reframed the election as a choice between stability and uncertainty. As the campaign intensifies, all eyes are on whether this lead will hold through the final weeks.
